Posted on Friday 5 June 2009
So, what is the probability of me getting fined on my motorbike in the next 60 days, knowing that I got 3 fines during the past 30 days and that lux police are real asses? Applying binomial distribution:
n = 60
k = 5
p = .1
q = 1 - .1 = .9
p(A) = 60!/5!55!(.1)^5(.9)^55
p(A) = 655381440/120(.00001)(.003043253)
p(A) = .166
So it seems that I have 16% chance of getting 5 fines when I got riding out the 2 coming months.. rather high… 0_o
I haven’t factored in the “assyness” of police.. that may further increase the probability
